Elias Rankings & The AL East Arbitration Outlook

Sorry for the lack of updates again, I've been quite busy on the job search and conceptualizing where I plan to go with this blog.

Latest Elias updates:

- John Buck passes Jason Kendall and Gerald Laird, moving up quite a bit in Type B. Even Jose Molina now only has Kendall and Laird in his way for Type B status.
- Against other First Basemen, Lyle Overbay is four spots out of Type B status. He has Cantu, Branyan, Morales, and Nick Johnson ahead of him. With Johnson and Morales likely to fall out due to injuries, he would need to pass both Cantu and Branyan, which seems highly unlikely.
- Scott Downs is firmly planted as Type A still, and with Jason Frasor dropping a couple spots back, he's now more comfortably in Type B position with Kevin Gregg just a couple slots behind him. Both will likely finish as Type Bs.


Here is the number of Free Agents for AL East teams that qualify for Type A/B status:


- Toronto: Four (4). Buck, Frasor, Downs, and Gregg.
- Tampa Bay: Seven (7). Pena, Crawford, Soriano, Balfour, Choate, Wheeler, Benoit.
- Baltimore: One (1). Uehara.
- Boston: Five (5). Martinez, Varitek, Ortiz, Beltre, Lowell.
- New York: Four (4). Berkman, Pettite, Vazquez, Rivera.


Number of players likely to get arbitration offers (if options are not exercised, etc):


- Toronto: Four (4). Buck, Frasor, and Downs are almost locks to get arbitration offers. Gregg's options may or may not be declined at this point, but the majority is leaning towards declined.
- Tampa Bay: Four (4). While Tampa is looking to shed payroll, most of that will come from Pena. He would likely accept arb, and with his performance, chances are he won't get offered it. Wheeler's option will likely be exercised at 4M. With Balfour's success in TB, he is likely to decline but would definitely be offered. Benoit might be offered arb, but he might also sign a contract in advance of that. Choate's performance has been poor and he will likely not be back.
- Baltimore: Zero (0). It is highly unlikely that Uehara will receive arbitration with his salary already at 5 Million, especially with his injury issues and the fact he did not become the ideal starter they were looking for.
- Boston: Two (2). If an extension can't be reached, V-Mart will certainly look for a long-term contract elsewhere. It's hard to imagine they would give a raise to Varitek and his 5M salary, which is already way too high for a back-up catcher. Ortiz' option could be declined, and they may try and bring him back for cheaper (same with Varitek). Beltre will decline his 5M player option, and there is a good chance the Red Sox give him a multi-year deal. Lowell's time in the Red Sox, and maybe even in the majors, is done.
- New York: Zero (0). If Berkman's option is declined, I can't imagine they would offer him the chance at a raise. With his unusual peformance this year, he will either be a Yankee next year or on the FA Market. Pettite and Rivera will surely re-sign if they wish to continue playing. Arbitration isn't even a question. Vazquez might be brought back, but he has fallen out of favor this year and I can't imagine they'd want to commit over 12M to him.