Spinning The Gose

Sorry for the lack of updates. Just trying to get things going and unfortunately there has been a lot on my plate!

As everyone knows, "First Baseman of the Future" Brett "My Neck is Thicker than Snider's" Wallace has been traded for Anthony "Grey" Gose. For those who are unaware, Anthony Gose is an almost-20 year old Center Fielder from the Philadelphia Phillies organization. He was someone we asked for in the Halladay deal and were denied.

Over on MLBTR, all I've read is people calling for AA's head. Luckily the blogosphere seems to have much more reasonable responses, but there's been a myriad of knee jerk reactions over this trade.

On the outset, it looks like this:

Wallace, in AAA: .301/.359/.509/.868, 18 HR, 0 NSB, 27 BB:83 K.
Gose, in A+: .263/.325/.385/.710, 4 HR, 9 NSB, 32 BB:103 K.

Ew! I mean, look at those numbers. Clearly, Wallace is the better player. Right? Well, maybe. Unfortunately, we can't prove that Wallace is the better player. What we do know is, Wallace has been posting average numbers for someone in Las Vegas. He has an .809 OPS away split, which is well below average for anyone, especially a first baseman.

And that's the big issue when it comes to Wallace. His numbers are not BAD, they're just below average for a 1st baseman. Even worse, he plays a terrible defensive game.

That being said, I never trust anyone who tells me how I should think about a player without providing evidence. When Alex Anthopoulos tells me "Gose is a gold glove-caliber all-star center fielder in the future", I take that with a grain of salt. On the outset, as we've seen, Gose's numbers look terrible.

Let's do some comparison.

I decided to take a look at the Florida State League. The first investigation was to check all players in 1990 who were doing better than Gose.

There was one.

1: Junior Lake (Chc): .258/.338/.409/.747, 8 HR, 0 NSB, 28 BB:69 K
2. Anthony Gose: .263/.325/.385/.710, 4 HR, 9 NSB, 32 BB: 103 K

Now, Lake has 150 or so less PAs, so the strikeouts work out around the same level but with Lake taking a few more walks and obviously showing more power. But otherwise, Gose is 2nd among players in the FSL born 1990 or later.

I figured, posting one year isn't enough. I thought I should compare with those born in 1989. Players born in 89 ahead of Gose in OPS: Michael McDade (.783), Quincy Latimore (.727), Travis D'Arnaud (.713).


I respect everyone's opinion on Gose and I don't see this as a "woohoo! We won big time!" trade. In fact, it's possible other teams might have offered us someone better for Wallace. But this trade is about ceiling. It's about finding potential all-stars in premium positions, not guys who can be stop gaps and fill holes. It's about becoming an Atlanta or a Philadelphia when it comes to producing stars, not an Oakland Athletics.

Let's review the trade in a few years, when it actually matters.